Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 23.310056 25.440162 27.760394 30.490281 33.633522 37.162771 41.458589
2025-08-10 19.760078 22.594974 25.909094 30.126303 35.434598 42.015334 50.991977
2025-08-17 17.517231 20.745079 24.729175 30.128181 37.454094 47.374530 62.460937
2025-08-24 15.777814 19.191429 23.586053 29.849994 38.900416 52.144116 74.439984
2025-08-31 14.461490 17.975041 22.657337 29.622032 40.252246 56.947248 87.959255
2025-09-07 13.400638 16.957767 21.837432 29.366306 41.428834 61.646338 102.978051
2025-09-14 12.568894 16.157180 21.207438 29.261692 42.760663 66.848686 121.145348
2025-09-21 11.807484 15.378534 20.514070 28.939755 43.630665 71.380095 140.076496
2025-09-28 11.511669 15.234333 20.731618 30.076619 47.219441 82.153747 180.992882
2025-10-05 10.930642 14.619488 20.164342 29.821013 48.175536 87.695554 211.726436
2025-10-12 10.444784 14.109654 19.711837 29.697749 49.349840 94.085713 251.056060
2025-10-19 10.104348 13.795072 19.539059 30.039051 51.514121 103.617297 313.323555
2025-10-26 9.673245 13.322009 19.085762 29.847018 52.594146 110.988795 378.978060
2025-11-02 9.277748 12.881838 18.655214 29.653628 53.657393 118.861070 463.789583
2025-11-09 8.961407 12.548066 18.377855 29.722018 55.345712 129.461536 595.478887
2025-11-16 8.619858 12.153248 17.965531 29.476635 56.243110 138.029608 745.280550
2025-11-23 8.311145 11.794601 17.590219 29.264072 57.188618 147.355910 952.783754
2025-11-30 8.021114 11.451165 17.217900 29.017469 58.006888 156.776289 1235.054084
2025-12-07 7.773594 11.165544 16.929571 28.916576 59.203699 168.572888 1696.223765
2025-12-14 7.513317 10.845731 16.558735 28.600964 59.755408 178.091045 2291.934611
2025-12-21 7.461993 10.876151 16.830434 29.718495 64.680011 212.321773 5309.693391
2025-12-28 7.237172 10.597802 16.507709 29.467479 65.469122 226.197713 9114.854113
2026-01-04 7.042209 10.362482 16.252352 29.346412 66.654965 243.747946 20102.318243